The always-superb Doug Aamoth interviewed THQ Video Games CEO Brian Farrell
about the state of the video game business, with lots of discussion about World
Wrestling Entertainment and Ultimate Fighting Championship.
You can read the entire story
HERE
Highlights:
Q: Investors believe that the video game industry is a
recession-resistant industry as a whole. Could you talk about anything you’ve
seen so far inside consumer video games and do you think this is something we
just grow through or is it something that keeps you up at
night?
A: The video game industry is relatively recession-resistant. I think
it’s fairly clear that video games offer a great consumer value for the money —
you know, hours and hours of gameplay for anything from $20 to $60. So I think
that’s what makes the industry somewhat recession-resistant.
The one thing I worry about is the hardware at the higher end of the
range of price points. The 360 and the PS3 are still at relatively high price
points by historical standards this late in the cycle, so I think we should be a
little concerned about the velocity of the hardware at those higher price
points.
That being said, the last few months’ NPD data indicate that hardware
sales are still fairly robust. In fact, DS and Wii at lower price points are
still going very, very strongly and we’re hoping that Nintendo can for the first
time actually supply [enough units to meet] full demand.
It’s a bit of a mixed bag, but the takeaway is that from our retail
partners we’re really not hearing much concern about the video game sector. In
fact, most of our retail partners are actually adding shelf space because this
is a growing sector.
Q: You mentioned 360 and PS3. These are two boxes that, relative
to our expectations, have underwhelmed in the last two years given the size of
the opportunity that we all saw with the PS2 in the last cycle. What do we need
to do in order to get [current generation] platforms to a market size that would
be as big as something we saw in the previous cycle?
A: Remember that the original PlayStation 2’s launch price was $299.
We’re not even close to that yet. So the acceleration ramp has been fairly low
by historical standards. Then you’ve got the Wii, which is a tremendous value at
$249. That’s really the market leader in every way.
So our very strong view is that as we come down the price curve –
and, you know, Microsoft and Sony will come down that price curve. The question
is timing. When will they come down they come down the price curve? How
aggressively?
– but as they come down the price curve, we think you’ll see a
huge acceleration in both of those platforms.
We used to always think of this industry as “the cycle” and I think
the reality now is that there are several sub-cycles. There’s a sub-cycle with
the DS and PSP on the handheld side. There’s a sub-cycle going on with the Wii
and there’s a sub-cycle going on with the 360 and PS3. And there’s actually a
sub-cycle emerging in digital and online.
So it’s hard now to talk about “the cycle”. I think we have to talk
about all the cycles, and the way we think about it at THQ is that we plan our
business around each of those platforms, not around “the cycle”.
Q: Given that you’ve got all these mini-cycles building into one
big cycle, what’s the cost of addressing all those? It’s clear that the cost of
the price of developing for PS3 is up over PS2, but when you add in development
costs for all those other opportunities, which are smaller than the one big
opportunity in the last cycle, it’s driven up development costs.
How do you get
efficiency in that environment?
A: You make a great point. We’ve actually been saying from the
beginning of this cycle that it’s all about market segmentation because, yes, to
your point, what you can’t do – and we all tried to do it initially and paid the
price – is take a page from the playbook saying “get a big brand, port it to
three platforms, and get the efficiencies.”
Right now with the segments and the sub-cycles, you have to target
the consumer where that consumer is playing. On Xbox 360 and PS3, it’s still
very much of a core gamer platform. That’s why if you look at our big
initiatives there – things like Saints Row 2, Red Faction:
Guerilla – a real technology showpiece, Darksiders – a real
artistic showpiece – you’ve got to target that high-end gamer on those systems
and get the volume with that.
Wii, on the other hand, is much more of a family and kids platform.
We started with mostly porting our kids titles over and the lesson we’ve learned
is that it’s become much more of a family platform. So things like de
Blob, which we launch in just about six weeks, is very much of a
family-targeted game. Yes, the kids will want to play it but we think mom and
dad will pick up the game and play with the kids.
Going to the handhelds and the sub-markets in there: DS tends to be
slightly younger, so that’s more of our licensed content, whereas with PSP,
we’ve had great success with our older-skewing content like WWE and our
wholly-owned brand MX versus ATV.
So what we have to do – the way you find the efficiencies – is making
sure you have the right product on the right platform.
Q: Gross margin question, do you have trouble making money on the
Nintendo platforms? Is developing for the Wii going to structurally squeeze your
gross margins or can you expand it back to the trajectory you used to be
on?
A: The key to gross margins, like the key to overall success in this
business, is making games that sell well. When we have a strong product line,
price points maintain for a longer period of time, we show fewer markdowns and
allowances to retail for products that don’t sell. The takeaway is to make games
that sell.
As we’ve undertaken this very serious commitment to product quality,
we’ve not had a strong release slate over the last three quarters. We think
that’s about to change with the launch of de Blob, Saints Row
2, WWE, Red Faction: Guerilla, Darksiders, and
UFC. So our product slate in front of us, we believe those are all
products capable of commanding premium price points, which will drive gross
margins.
The gross margins on the Wii, particularly for something like de
Blob — $49.99 price point, very moderate development cost – those should be
very, very good. Even on the budget side of the Wii, we’ve had terrific success
with a product called Big Beach Sports primarily in Europe – budget
title, but very low development cost, so those margins are good.
Again, the common theme is that if you make hits, you make money. If
you don’t make hits, your margins are compressed.
Q: How important is owned IP versus licensed
IP?
A: Our strategy is a balance. We’d love to see around 50-50 owned IP
to licensed IP. We love the licensed IP business – predictable brand, lots of
cross-promotion opportunities, relatively stable cash flows – so we like that
predictability. Things like WWE and UFC, because they add new fight modes and
new characters, you can annualize those and you don’t wear out the brand. We’ve
signed recent deals with Marvel and Dreamworks, and the first UFC products are
coming. So we’re still going to be very active in that category.
That being said, huge value creation comes from owned IP. You can
sequel it, you can extend the brand, you can take it to other media. It is
riskier, so that’s why we like the balance. It kind of lowers the overall beta,
if you will. We want one to three new IP’s per year, plus sequels and extending
some of our other brands. That, going along with our licensed portfolio, we
think combines both some sustainability and predictability.
As displeased as I am right now with our recent performance, we have
grown for thirteen consecutive years in a very cyclical industry. So I think our
strategy is right. Where we’re really focused right now is making sure we
execute on the product side because not only will we get the revenue growth,
we’ll get the margin growth.
Q: What’s the price point that you think will really ramp console
sales? Is $199 still the magic number or is it different now? Because there are
so many other platforms that people are playing games on – cell phones, PSP, DS,
potentially the iPhone.
A: Really good question. Historically, getting below $199 and even
$149 was always crucial to getting to that mass market. I think that price point
is probably slightly higher than that right now. I think a sub $200 price point
or even sub $249 can be very powerful.
As you know, things like iPhones, PSP’s, and even iPods have had huge
success at relatively higher price points. And remember, with the Sony PS3, you
get an incredibly powerful gaming machine, plus a Blu-ray playback device at a
pretty decent price point.
So, I don’t know exactly what the [magic] price point is, but I can
say that acceleration tends to be geometric once you get below those incremental
$50 lower price points. So when we look at how the market should progress, you
should get a fairly strong ramp as we go from $400 to $249 to $199. Again, the
question is when?
You also point out that there has been, in some ways, a proliferation
of platforms but our point of view – and I think we’re right on this – is that
gamers tend to be very situational. So someone doesn’t buy, say, a PSP or an
iPod to play a game on those instead of a PS3 or a 360. PSP’s, DS’s, and iPhones
are for portable gaming – much more quick hitting. Consoles like the 360 and PS3
are for much more in-depth gaming. The Wii has been for much more social gaming.
That’s another initiative we have – taking advantage of people trying to play
games more together.
So there’s a proliferation of platforms but what you have to do as a
marketer is say, “Where is my particular customer on that platform?” And if you
target it that well, I think there’s a lot of opportunity. Particularly right
now, when you see a lot of those platforms with different consumers on
them.
Q: Brian, I’d like to test your confidence on Saints Row
2. In terms of variability, this is probably your biggest product of the
year. What do you think as you get closer to launch?
A: Well, let me start by saying that we have a very broad product
line and I never want to get anyone – whether it’s retail, investors, or
internally – focused on one product.
That being said, Saints Row 2, in my view, is the biggest
sandbox game ever built, with the most toys for gamers. It’s got tremendous,
over-the-top combat, terrific weapons, a very unique online cooperative play
mode that’s been getting a lot of accolades from the press. The character
customization, I’ve never seen anything like it. We’ve seen people testing the
game, playing for hours just with the customization mode.
So, it is a great product. We think we have a great window for it. We
are very pleased with retail’s feedback, but it’s not
just about launch day. We
think we’ll have a very strong launch, but it’s about driving that brand both
here and in Europe and in Asia. So it’s a long-term brand. That’s what we’re
looking for with Saints Row 2.
Q: Can you talk about the internal focus on product quality? What
should we be focused on with the de Blob release to let
us know that
the product quality really has improved?
A: Yeah, let’s talk about that product quality initiative that we’ve
set out on – I think we announced it last October. It had a couple of prongs to
it. One is, we added some people in the corporate office.
One, a Vice President of Creative Management. He was an outside hire,
some of you may have met him at E3. Many years in the creative development
organization at Electronic Arts. Very strong hire. His job is to make sure our
production values – story, music, character development – are competing at the
highest level. Also, things like graphic quality, in-game cinematics – we think
Danny can add tremendous value.
The other guy was promoted internally. He used to run our Rainbow
Studios — Roy Tessler. He is a production management professional. It’s all
about schedule and budget with Roy. What that’s done is that it’s given myself
and my team greater visibility on the tradeoffs between hitting a date and
hitting a quality level so that we maximize quality on all of the key drive
titles.
One of the reasons we’ve had this dearth of product flow recently is
that we’ve moved a number of products out to hit that. What I was very pleased
at, really three proof points – starting with a European tour about a month ago,
we got great feedback from retail about the strength and quality of our product
line.
I was extremely pleased coming out of E3, and now your question,
specifically, about de Blob. It won one of the most anticipated games
of the show overall. Another press outlet that runs Best of E3 called it the
best Wii game of E3. But not just de Blob, a number of our titles won
awards at E3, which I think is a proof-point that what we’re doing is
working.
Now it’s not like we started last October and we’re finished today.
Along the continuum, we’ve made a lot of movement but I won’t be satisfied until
every product comes out at the highest level of quality, particularly on the
core gamer metrics.
So, yes, E3 was a huge proof-point for us. Now we want to make sure
that quality resonates with consumers as well. We’re very pleased. de
Blob is a very high-quality game, Saints Row is a very
high-quality game. Even something like WWE, which is a licensed brand,
we continue to invest in new things just to make sure that brand stays
fresh.
If you stay with things like on Red Faction, I’d put that
technology that we worked on for four years up against anything in the industry.
Lot of shooters out there, nothing has the destruction technology of Red
Faction: Guerilla.
So you’ve got to look at each product individually, which is how we
do it. The proof-point is going to be “How does it resonate with consumers?” We
think that the recent success that we’ve had with the press at E3 gives us a lot
of confidence.
Q: On that point of the Wii, we’ve seen other third-party
products that have been reasonably well-reviewed but based on new IP, not sell
through very well on the Wii for a number of different reasons. What should our
expectations be for de Blob? Is this a game that could sell a million
or more units in the first couple quarters?
A: You bring up a good point. For the last couple years since the
launch of the Wii, Nintendo has dominated the Wii with a huge slate of
first-party products. We don’t see that many drive titles coming from Nintendo
in our market opportunity, so we think we have a great market window coming out
this September with de Blob.
What I love about de Blob, I said before. Not a tremendous
investment because with the Wii, you can invest a fair amount and get a very
high-quality product. So the upside leverage there — if we can create a hit –
the upside leverage is very, very strong there. So that’s why we’re confident in
de Blob, but also a key objective for us is to make sure we establish
the brand.
We want to make sure that we have success so that we can bring it
back to the Wii, and to other platforms. And you do that with high quality –
drive the brand – and if we do that, there’s leverage and then there’s value
creation.
Q: You guys have roughly $300 million in cash. What do you plan
to do with it?
A: I’ve been saying the same thing for several years about cash. The
highest and best use of cash is investment in intellectual property. That means
investing in studios. Both growing ones we already own – we’ve had great success
with studios like Volition and Relic, starting with a core team and building out
super high quality studios.
We’ve also bought studios. We bought one last year. We had identified
role playing games as a huge market opportunity. We bought Big Huge Games and we
like what we see there. There’s two products we haven’t announced yet under
development there, but a very, very experienced and professional
team.
We have an MMO in development in our Austin studio based on our very
successful Warhammer 40K franchise. That’s a product — it’s way too
early to start talking a lot about it – but if you look at what’s happening in
the MMO market and why that product has a great chance of success; it has all
the elements of why people like MMO’s. It’s a variability of characters and
powers, yet it’s set in a very unique Science Fiction environment. That’s a very
large investment.
So we’ve invested in brands and new licenses – it’s all about IP, so
that’s the highest and best use of cash.
Q: Where are investors underappreciating THQ?
A: I think it’s in the power of our studios. We’ve been very
forthright in saying, you know, “We didn’t execute well last year against our
owned IP.” That’s why undertook the product quality initiatives that we’ve done
but, frankly, we’ve done it before.
I don’t mean to sound overly optimistic or defensive, but Relic
Entertainment created the highest-rated real-time strategy game ever for the PC
market. Volition has created – before we even bought them – did the
Descent series for those of you old and crusty gamers in the PC market.
The original Saints Row, the original Red Faction –
we have a very strong studio system. Yes, we did not have a good flow from them
last year but I think you’ll start seeing the benefits of that coming up with
de Blob in September and continuing through the launch of UFC
in the June quarter of next year.
So, I think it’s the underappreciation of the strong pipeline that we
have for the next several quarters.
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