I think Fedor also is concerned that he might lose to Brock Lesnar -- and there's nothing wrong with that, Lesnar is a beast -- and even a 30% chance of Lesnar winning the first fight is a big risk for Fedor. Especially in his first fight in a cage with elbows on the ground. Fedor's history of getting cut in fights makes a cut stoppage from an elbow an exceedingly likely outcome.

In closing, here's the case for Strikeforce:

1. No elbows on the ground.
2. Willingness to co-promote. Remember, Fedor isn't just a client of M-1, he's supposedly a 20% owner -- that's twice the share Dana White has in the UFC. There's also a strong element of Russian nationalism. Fedor's never been seen on national television in Russia. Affliction had just scored a deal to do that. Also, don't forget how "business" is done in Russia. I don't want to speculate, but if I was Fedor, I'd be very hesitant to dump my Russian partners.
3. Strikeforce's roster of Brett Rogers, Fabricio Werdum and Alistair Overeem is a very credible roster of foes for Fedor -- they are ranked #8, 10 and 14, respectively, on this month's USAT/SBN MMA rankings. And I'm sure each would enjoy the "Josh Barnett effect" of rising several notches upon the announcement of a signed fight with Fedor.
4. Non-exclusivity. With Strikeforce, Fedor could quite possibly continue to fight in Japan on the odd New Year's Eve for DREAM, maybe even against Josh Barnett in a fight many still want to see.