The best story out there on Brock Lesnar has been posted by
Yahoo!Sports, and it covers a lot of ground.
Dave Meltzer, the pro wrestling and MMA guru, wrote the
following:
A week ago, Brock Lesnar had
his back against the wall. In his third pro mixed martial arts fight, and his
first to pass the 90-second mark, Lesnar shut down 11-year pro Heath Herring at
Saturday's UFC 87 in Minneapolis.
The former NCAA wrestling champion dominated Herring in
such a fashion that public opinion shifted from thinking he was a novelty act to
wondering who can handle someone with his size, power and overall
athleticism.
Lesnar sent Herring head-over-heels with a right hand in
the opening seconds but mainly fought a conservative fight in winning a
one-sided decision. In doing so, he answered some of the many questions about
him as an MMA fighter.
Guys of Lesnar's size and physique are usually stereotyped
as lacking the stamina to hang at the championship level. Lesnar was known for
his conditioning as a wrestler at the University of Minnesota, but that was
eight years ago. Saturday, he proved he could go the distance and also showed
major strategic improvements over his first fight, as he kept himself under
control and made no major mistakes over three rounds.
He may not have the best punching technique, but he has
freakish power in his punches. He can use his wrestling skill to control an
experienced fighter; physically, he is able to manhandle anyone but a top-level
wrestler.
The big question, whether he can take a punch, remains
unanswered. But if he can take people down at will, it may be some time before
he has to answer it. It's to his benefit to keep that question from being asked
for as long as possible.
As impressive as Lesnar looked athletically, MMA is a game
of styles. He may be the best wrestler in the division, but that's not a
lock.
Cain Velasquez is six years younger, and while never an
NCAA champion, he took Lesnar's training partner, 2006 NCAA champ Cole Konrad,
to the limit, losing a criteria decision, in that year's
tournament.
On paper, a good kickboxer who can avoid Lesnar's
takedowns would give him trouble, but there's nobody on the UFC roster that
readily fits that description.
The top tier of UFC heavyweights, champ Antonio Rodrigo
Nogueira and the next three contenders, Frank Mir, Fabricio Werdum (who will get
a shot at the Nogueira-Mir winner likely in early 2009) and former top contender
Gabriel Gonzaga would relish the opportunity to be taken down by Lesnar and try
to counter his power with their jiu-jitsu skills.
If Lesnar learns submission avoidance well enough to
stymie their offense and has confidence in that ability, none of the current top
four would have a chance to beat him. But all would be dangerous opponents. One
would think Lesnar wouldn't be put in with any of them for the next several
months. Gonzaga is a bad match to book from a risk-reward basis because he has
little upside after losses to Randy Couture and Werdum and could knock Lesnar
down a peg when he's being built.
There may be people who can stop Lesnar's takedowns in the
UFC, but those four aren't it.
With his performance, Lesnar has suddenly put more focus
on the UFC's heavyweight division since Randy Couture left the company last
year.
For much of the company's recent history, the division has
been second-rate. In the early part of the decade, most of the top heavyweight
talent was in Japan's PRIDE group. Things appeared to change last year. UFC was
rolling in money from the windfall of some huge pay-per-view shows in 2006.
PRIDE was in the process of going down for the count after losing its television
exposure in Japan.
UFC signed Nogueira and Mirko Cro Cop, generally
considered the second and third best heavyweights in the world at the time.
Then, the division got a boost when Couture, one of the company's most popular
fighters at the time, beat Tim Sylvia for the championship.
But with Cro Cop, Couture, Sylvia and former champ Andrei
Arlovski leaving, the heavyweight division quickly became UFC's weakest class,
and gave rival Affliction the opening to have the best heavyweight
lineup.
Lesnar (2-1) is one of three former college wrestling
standouts being primed as the division's future, along with Velasquez (3-0) and
Shane Carwin (9-0). It will likely be a year before any of them is put in title
contention, and MMA is unpredictable enough that it's possible none will pan
out, although the law of averages is in favor of at least one of the three
becoming a major star.
Since Velasquez handily dispatched Jake O'Brien on July
19, UFC is having problems finding suitable opponents. He has no match scheduled
at the present time. The problem is that he still doesn't have a recognizable
name, so for a well-known opponent, there's no upside to winning.
While insiders are already talking about a potential
Velasquez-Lesnar match, it's doubtful it would be made any time soon because it
makes little sense until Velasquez gets more of a name.
If both continue to win, the fight could determine who is
the future of the division. Lesnar, a 280-pounder who cuts to 265, would go in
with 40-45 pounds on Velasquez, who weighed 235 without having to cut in his
last outing. Still, Velasquez routinely dispatched bigger men in the sport of
wrestling, which is where Lesnar's strengths lie. Velasquez appears to have
adapted more quickly than Lesnar to the stand-up game and jiu-jitsu, and his
stamina in the gym is legendary, even though he's never had to show it in
competition.
Carwin has the most fights, but is actually the one with
the most question marks. Coming off a 44-second knockout win over Christian
Wellisch in his UFC debut May 24, he has bulldozed through every opponent.
Before fighting Wellisch, Carwin's game plan was simple.
The 1999 Division II heavyweight champion at Western State
College in Colorado would explode at the bell, take his opponent down and
destroy him with some of the fiercest ground and pound in the division. The
longest match of his career lasted 2:11.
It's an impressive resume, and of the three, Carwin is the
most shark-like when he smells blood. But he faces the same questions that faced
Lesnar a week ago. How is his stamina? And can he take a punch? Like Lesnar,
he's got natural power in his punches, as the Wellisch knockout showed, and
which is evident in his ground and pound. But he has yet to face the level of
opponent that would allow you to fully judge his UFC potential. His toughest
opponent so far was 310-pound former Arena Football League lineman Rex Richards,
who got the same treatment as everyone who has crossed Carwin's
path.
Carwin is the only one of the three who has a future match
lined up. He'll face Neil Wain, a British heavyweight with a similar record.
Wain is 4-0, all four fights ending via first-round knockout or TKO, on the Oct.
18 show in Birmingham, England.
Where Lesnar goes next will likely be determined over the
next few weeks.
Mark Coleman, Lesnar's original opponent for Saturday
night's match until he suffered a torn MCL in training in late May, is healthy,
but apparently not pushing hard for the fight.
Cheick Kongo, who knocked out Dan Evensen on Saturday, is
Lesnar's most likely next opponent, although no negotiations have
started.
If it happens, Kongo (22-5-1) can win if he stays on his
feet. But Kongo was out-wrestled by a smaller Carmello Marrero two years ago,
and the Kongo of that day would have no chance against Lesnar unless Lesnar
beats himself. Kongo has shown better wrestling since that time, but whether
it's enough to stay upright against Lesnar is a different story.